After having a few people ask me for my NFL picks due to recent semi-success in my Pigskin Pick’em Sports Guy League, I have decided to make my picks a weekly post on commaPause. I’ll give a little rationale behind each pick, but keep in mind, I am by no means an NFL expert (which is probably why I have been doing fairly well this season–a lack of expertise keeps me from over-thinking match-ups, plus I have relatively little team/player bias in the NFL as compared to the NBA). And remember, I charge 20% of all winnings, but the fine print at the bottom removes any responsibility for money lost from my picks. Or at least buy me a damn drink if you make some cash of me.
Week 1: 13-3
Week 2: 9-6
Week 3: 7-9
Week 4: 6-8
Week 5: 6-8
Week 6: 10-3
Week 7: 7-7
Week 9: 9-5
Week 10 Picks (Home team in CAPS, lines based on opening week odds found on ESPN’s Pigskin Pick’em):
Atlanta (+4.5) over CAROLINA:
Carolina has looked horrendous for the past few weeks, with Steve Smith getting very few touches due to merry-go-round of quarterbacks. With Carr out this week, and Testaverde injured, I’ll take the Falcons on this one.
GREEN BAY (-7.5) over Minnesota:
If you haven’t heard, Adrian Peterson ran for a lot of yards last week. No really! Unfortunately for him, it was against the Chargers, and their defense against the run this year would have a hard time stopping Peterson on a Rascal, let alone running upright. I mean, they gave up 100 yards to Larry Johnson a good two weeks before he even slightly resembled the old LJ last week(which, of course, coincided with him injuring his foot, so he won’t be fully healthy for more than 3 games when the season is all said and done). The Packers have a solid run defense, and the Vikings did not fare well against the last good run D they faced (remember Dallas?). Plus, Favre is on a mission from God.
Denver (+4.5) over KANSAS CITY:
Picking Denver this year has been unsafe at best. Then again, Larry Johnson will sit this one out, and Damon Huard is still the Q for KC. Yes, the game is in Arrowhead. No, that’s not what it used to be. I’ll take Denver to cover here.
Buffalo (-2) over MIAMI:
It’s true, Miami is bad. It’s also true that Buffalo is better than they are given credit for (they’re on a 3-game winning streak). Lee Evans is back to his old ways, Edwards and Losman are equally effective, and Miami’s run defense is horrendous so Lynch should have a big game (even more so with Jason Taylor out). Fresh off a bye or not, Miami should get trounced.
St. Louis (+11.5) over NEW ORLEANS:
Perhaps I am falling into Vegas’s idiot trap here, but 11.5 is a lot of points. Sure, the Rams are bad, but they’re not going to go 0-for-the-season. Stephen Jackson returns to provide the Rams with approximately 50 yards and 2 fumbles, but somehow I think that may be enough to keep the game within at TD and a field goal. Plus, I’m not sold on New Orleans as juggernauts yet. Lets not forget how pitiful they looked as they started 0-4. Momentum is key in sports, but I’m still taking the Rams.
Cleveland (+9.5) over Pittsburgh:
Umm… the Browns are good too! Sure the Steelers racked up the points on Monday night: they were playing the RAVENS! McNair doesn’t even like football anymore, and half of the Ravens passing defense was hurt! Cleveland has much more fire power than Baltimore (Derek Anderson: the MIP in the NFL this season?), and Big Ben isn’t going to throw for 5 TDs again. He’s good, but come on. On a positive note for Pittsburgh fans, Willie Parker should rebound from his poor showing last week.
Jacksonville (+4.5) over TENNESSEE:
This game scares me. Vince Young has a penchanct for winning close games, but the real questions lies in whether they win on a Young touchdown run (Young with a game-winning TD pass? Ha!) or a Rob Bironas field goal. Either way game should be close as Tennessee doesn’t blow anyone out and Jacksonville is nothing if not tough. Expect a battle, and save your money for a different game.
WASHINGTON (-2.5) over Philadelphia:
Washington hasn’t looked great the last three weeks. Neither has Philly. But I’ll take the Redskins D over the ’07 McNabb any day. Despite the fact that both Moss and Randle El are both banged up, the run game for the Skins should be enough.
Cincinnati (+5.5) over BALTIMORE:
Yeah, it’s in Baltimore, and yeah, Lewis warned teams about playing in Baltimore. Still, Baltimore being favored by 5.5 means that Lewis’s D would have to hold the Bengals to 0 points, because I don’t care who plays QB for the Ravens, their offense is atrocious. And it’s about time for the Bengals to snap out of their funk.
Detroit (+1.5) over ARIZONA:
I feel like there’s something I’m missing here: Detroit is 6-2, fresh off of wins Tampa, Chicago, and Denver, while Arizona is 3-5, having lost 3 of its last 4. So Kitna has come back down to earth a little the past few weeks–it’s still Arizona. This one seems too easy to me…
NEW YORK GIANTS (+1.5) over Dallas:
Betting against Dallas is risky this year. Still, much has changed since these the G-Men were obliterated by Dallas in Week 1. Brandon Jacobs is a hand full, and Manning is slowly maturing (much like Peyton did) into a strong quarterback. I just wish he would close his mouth and get that dumbfounded look off of his face once in a while. Nonetheless, Romo is still streaky, and he’s still risky, which equals lots of potential turnovers against this Giants defense (I just hope Barber has a big day–there are fantasy games to be won).
Chicago (-3.5) over OAKLAND:
I know little about these two teams and care less. Chicago comes off a bye week, Oakland comes off a “we are a bad team” week, and the world keeps on turning. Chicago gets my vote due to the Devin Hester factor. Next please.
INDIANAPOLIS (-3.5) over San Diego:
Things we know:
- The Chargers gave up 300 yards to Adrian Peterson last week, and Minnesota has a bad quarterback.
- The Colts have a good quarterback and Joseph Addai is a gangster.
- The Colts blew a late lead to their nemesis and are certainly steaming mad.
- The Colts defense officially has a killer instinct.
- Phil Rivers sleeps with teddy bears and white heart PJ’s on (teddy bears and PJ’s are the antithesis of a killer instinct).
- The Chargers have the dumbest secondary in the history of the sport (in fact, they are to be referred to as the “tripledary” from now on: they’re not good enough for second) and will most likely look foolish against Manning.
- LT and Gates just aren’t enough
SEATTLE (-9.5) over San Francisco:
I really want to pick the Niners here, but I can’t logically do it. Fragile Frank runs for .391 yards/carry this year, Vernon Davis only looks good at football on commercials, and they have lost 6 in a row. The Seahawks are no good either (Seattle is a cursed city for sports this year), but they are less bad than San Fran. About 14 points less bad.